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Thursday 23 March 2023

On Saturday 16 June 2001, at Brdo Castle in Slovenia, US President George W. Bush described his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”

Bush’s remarks were made near the end of a joint press conference, following an afternoon of constructive talks. That there was a genuine potential for the two leaders to develop friendly ties is exemplified by another of Bush’s ruminations:

“The president told me something very interesting. He said, I read where you named your daughters after your mother and your mother-in-law. And I said, yes, I’m a great diplomat, aren’t I? (Laughter.) And he said, I did the same thing. (Laughter.) I said, Mr President, you’re a fine diplomat, as well. We share our love for our families. We’ve got common interests. And from that basis we will seize the moment to make a difference in the world. That’s why he ran for the presidency, and it’s why I ran for the presidency.”   

To cap off a seemingly auspicious day, Bush invited his Russki counterpart to his ranch in Crawford, Texas, and got an invitation to stay chez Putin in return.

It’s a matter for deep regret therefore, that in the long run, not even these niceties made up for the fiendishly anti-Russian speech Bush gave in Warsaw the day before. ‘Fiendish’ because it contained a Catch-22 which Bush is unlikely to have picked up; despite his being a “history major” (as he said at the same post-summit presser). What has to be borne in mind is that forceful arguments for both NATO and EU expansion were central themes of the speech as a whole.

“No more Munichs. No more Yaltas.”

Although these ‘prohibitions’ look like a pair, they carry crucially and fundamentally different implications in this context. From Germany’s point of view, “No more Munichs” means:

“Never again will a murderous dictator in Berlin have a say in Europe-wide security arrangements.”

It does not mean: “Never again will Berlin have a say in Europe-wide security”, because Germany is a privileged member of NATO and the EU.

In contrast however, from Russia’s perspective, “No more Yaltas” doesn’t only mean:

“Never again will a murderous dictator in Moscow have a say in European security”.

Since Russia is functionally excluded from NATO and the EU, it means:

“Never again will Moscow have a say in European security.”

And so, via the big NATO enlargement (including the Baltics) of 2004, in April 2008 there was the Bucharest Summit, at which Ukraine and Georgia were promised membership. Even that might have been OK, if the West hadn’t instigated the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected government on 22 February 2014. In an infamous conversation recorded sometime in the weeks beforehand, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland could be heard telling US ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt:

“I think Yats is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience…”

Who then became PM of the post-coup regime? Arseny Yatsenyuk, of course. Yats was the guy.

Other senior westerners in the period 2013-14, many of them Washington insiders, bear a heavy weight of responsibility for the current tragedy. But let’s not overlook the record of UK PM David Cameron, and a figure one wouldn’t necessarily think of – Prince Charles, now Charles III. In May 2014, in conversation with a woman whose family had fled to Canada just before the German invasion of Poland, the then-heir apparent offered the following view of Crimean reunification:

“And now Putin is doing just about the same as Hitler.”

On BBC TV last September, Cameron told Laura Kuenssberg about his “audiences with Prince Charles when Queen Elizabeth II was on the throne… to prepare him for taking over from his late mother.” Did those two scallywags hatch a plan whereby Charles would endorse the comparison of Putin’s actions with those of the Führer in World War II? You wouldn’t put it past them. 



Wednesday 16 November 2022

Stella Maris Meals

“St Mary-on-the-Quay is central to the history of the Catholic Church in Bristol.” Mervyn Alexander, Bishop of Clifton 1974-2001 (2010)

Fr Michael Cleary moved into St Mary’s presbytery on the feast of the Triumph of the Cross, 14 September 2004. Ably assisted by Frs Nico and Anil, he thus became the first SVD (Divine Word missionary) incumbent priest. SMQ is usually understood to enjoy the special protection of Our Lady’s Immaculate Conception. However, before his untimely passing in October 2008, Fr Michael told me his firm conviction that the true dedication is to Our Lady, Star of the Sea. Of course, ‘on-the-Quay’ was an accurate qualifier when the church was consecrated in 1843, though the docks were covered over in the 1890s. And he went on to explain that Bristol itself is under the patronage of Stella Maris (‘Star of the Sea’ in Latin). The same title of Our Lady is also likely to have been the original dedication of St Mary Redcliffe: described as “the fairest, goodliest, and most famous parish church in England” by Elizabeth I on her visit to Bristol in 1574.

In 1992, at Craig Lodge, Dalmally, salmon farmer Magnus MacFarlane-Barrow founded an aid agency, Scottish International Relief (SIR), in his Dad’s slightly wonky all-purpose shed. On the face of it you wouldn’t expect a Stella Maris tie-in here. She’s the patron saint for instance of the Netherlands, associated with seafaring and maritime communications. Located twenty miles or more from the nearest jellyfish-infested waters, it hardly seems worth floating the idea that Dalmally is a beachfront holiday resort. Even so, one could mention that the beautiful wider region, Argyll, has a name said to derive from Old Gaelic Airer Goídel, meaning ‘Coast of the Gaels’. Might a Star of the Sea connection be worth taking on board after all?

In the cold light of day it’s more likely pie in the sky. The relevant passage is in Chapter 6 of The Shed That Fed 2 Million Children, Magnus’s bestselling page-turner which he updated last year. Englishman Tony Smith came up with the name Mary’s Meals in 2002, while living in landlocked Malawi. His inspiration was a television interview with onetime US presidential candidate George McGovern. Bemoaning the lack of idealism in US politics, the former Senator from South Dakota extolled the virtues of providing nutritious meals every school day in the world’s poorest communities. The evidence showed three important effects in every one of thirty pilot programmes in different countries. Enrolment almost doubled; academic and general health standards rose sharply; and girls were able to benefit. This last outcome is crucial, not least because educated girls almost invariably marry later and go on to have roughly half or less than half the number of children (on average 2.9 per mother, as opposed to 6). As McGovern put it:

“Nutrition is not only the handmaiden of education, in that it gets children into school and enables them to learn when they get there. It’s also the handmaiden of a responsible birth-rate”.

Still, SMQ wouldn’t be the only example of an obscure or disguised dedication to Stella Maris. In the 2000s there was a centre in downtown St Petersburg, Russia, providing food, medical care and basic education to homeless and underprivileged children. Its name, ‘Morskaya Zvezda’, translates literally into Russian as Sea Star – ‘starfish’. But the Marian connotation wasn’t lost on staff and administrators, many of whom were Byzantine-rite Catholics from Ukraine or RCs from western countries. And when the author of this article was in the famous Shed at Craig Lodge in May 2013, about to embark on a largely overland (and walking) pilgrimage to Malawi, there was a measure of providence in the fact that Magnus told me to visit Liberia.

Like neighbouring Sierra Leone, Liberia was founded in the nineteenth century as a homeland for freed slaves. It falls into the challenging subset of relatively young countries which also happen to be among the world’s poorest. SIR/Mary’s Meals has been active there since the years of devastating civil war in the 1990s, and has made an incalculable contribution since the fighting ended in 2003. I was powerfully struck by the contrast between the calm and confident demeanour of folks in villages benefitting from Mary’s Meals, and the often woebegone ambience of communities it hadn’t reached.

Another notable thing about Liberia though, is its lack of a clearly stated patron saint. True, various possibilities have been suggested, including Jane Rose Roberts, who served as First Lady twice in the mid-1800s. Born in Petersburg Virginia and brought to Liberia in 1824, Mrs Roberts worked hard to improve the lot of the poor and reconcile different tribes. Yet in the absence of any swift progress towards her beatification, the Star-Spangled Banner she may have helped design surely offers the best clue as to who Liberians should turn to in their hour of need. Monrovia, the capital, has a shipping registry containing more vessels than anywhere else in the world except Panama. I began the modified ‘flag of convenience’ below in the Monrovian suburb of Virginia on the feast of St Nicholas (patron saint of seafarers), 06 December 2013. Since my as yet unfinished account of the pilgrimage as a whole has a tongue-in-cheek Indiana Jones theme, the Liberia chapter is projected to be called ‘The Template of Doom’.

“Look at the Star, call upon Mary … With her as your guide, you shall not go astray; while invoking her, you shall never lose heart … if she walks before you, you shall not grow weary; if she shows you favour, you shall reach the goal.” St Bernard of Clairvaux

Until 31 January 2023, all donations to Mary’s Meals will be doubled by a group of generous supporters, up to £1.5 million. It is hoped this will enable the charity to overcome difficulties caused by conflict and increased food insecurity.



Friday 30 September 2022

The Amber Dog

Tsar Nicholas II’s uncle by marriage, King Edward VII (d. 1910) was the first British monarch to decree that since his birthday was in wet and grey November, its ‘official’ celebration should be moved to the summer. His great granddaughter Queen Elizabeth II was born in April, when the weather also tends to be a bit mixed, so Saturday 11 June 2016 was appointed as her official 90th birthday. What made this particularly interesting to me was that it coincided with an important football match between Russia and England.

When I arrived at the Mamonovo border crossing on 25 May 2016, the official who checked my passport decided I should be given extra scrutiny, so I was interviewed by two of her colleagues. To put their minds at rest I cited Inga as one of my contacts in Kaliningrad; and indeed my two previous visits, as a guest of IKBFU in 2012 and 2014 (without which I could never have realised my aims on this trip) were made possible only by Inga selflessly sparing time to clear bureaucratic obstacles on my behalf. Moreover I was keen to see her of course, my former colleague and friend whom I’d first met seventeen years earlier, though I had no wish to believe it would be my last opportunity. But meanwhile I explained to the guards that my principal objective was to give a talk at a church in the small town of Znamensk, about a charity called Mary’s Meals. The delay caused by this interview however, meant the coach I’d travelled on from Gdansk had to leave without me, so I ended up being given a lift to Kaliningrad by an Azeri truck driver. In conversation with him, it was very useful that I knew the name of Tofiq Bahramov.

According to legend, the man known to countless English football fans as ‘the Russian linesman’ (in spite of his hailing from Azerbaijan) was given a gold whistle by Queen Elizabeth in gratitude for his award of a controversial goal to England in the 1966 World Cup final. In fact it was customary for the referee of the final to get a gold whistle; in 1966 there was only a slight change when both his assistants received them too. [1] [2] Nonetheless, to this day there are those who think the Queen intentionally sought to ensure that Mr Bahramov’s part in England’s victory over West Germany did not go unrecognised.

Queen Elizabeth’s sense of humour surfaced more unambiguously in April 2014, when she met Pope Francis for the first time. Presenting the Pontiff with a set of signed photographs of herself and her husband, she said,

“I’m afraid you have to have a photograph, it’s inevitable.”[3]

Clearly she found this particular protocol a bit of a bore; and no doubt she would have had exactly the same reservations about the identikit pictures given to Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, on his visit to Buckingham Palace on 18 October 2016. Even so, in view of the prevailing chill in relations between Russia and Britain at the time, an important thing to note about this meeting is that it exceeded all expectations. Before his departure from Luton Airport, the Patriarch told journalists:

“I am very pleased with the [results of] this meeting and I must say that I did not expect it to take place in such an atmosphere and at such an active level as it did. She has bright beaming eyes, a wonderful reaction to words, to questions, to the conversation. She herself talked a lot and said very right, clever things that were interesting to listen to. This conversation made a very pleasant impression on me intellectually and emotionally.”

What’s more however, on this occasion there is reason to suspect that a certain high-profile Royal may have been behind a decision to furnish her guest with a souvenir that certainly doesn’t find its way into many a tourist’s hand luggage. The day before the palace meeting, Patriarch Kirill’s entourage had its ranks unexpectedly swelled by the addition of a yellow Pembrokeshire Welsh Corgi puppy. 
Archbishop Justin Welby looks on as Patriarch Kirill receives a Pembrokeshire Welsh Corgi puppy, London, 17 October 2016 [4]
On the face of it this was a gift from the Russian Orthodox Cathedral of the Dormition in London, where Prince Michael of Kent, the Queen’s cousin who bears a striking resemblance to Tsar Nicholas II, is known to worship. Patriarch Kirill was delighted with his present:

“The dog is wonderful, and since I spend a considerable part of my personal life completely alone, it is very pleasant for me to know that there will be a reliable friend to share my solitude.”

But the intriguing thing is that Pembrokeshire Welsh Corgis are exactly the breed to which Queen Elizabeth has been especially devoted, for almost all of her 91 years.[5]

There’s a picture of a dog sculpted out of amber (Figure 2) on page 91 of a book Inga gave me for my 40th birthday, which I celebrated in September 2014 with a few friends in one of Kaliningrad’s ‘Britannica’ English-style pubs.
Figure 2: amber dog on p.91 of The Poetry of Amber, Mastery and Discovery by Gennady Losets[6]
In Figure 3, Gennady Losets’ The Poetry of Amber, Mastery and Discovery is visible underneath the box of chocolates she also gave me, next to my glass of ‘amber nectar’.[7] Incidentally, underneath that book one can just see the corner of another tome, Robin Dunbar’s fascinating Grooming, Gossip and the Evolution of Language, which I would never have read if Inga hadn’t given it to me, but which turned out to have a direct bearing on writing I’ve been doing, about Africa.
Figure 3: the author's 40th birthday celebration, in the company of Inga and other friends, Kaliningrad, September 2014. Two books are visible, underneath the box of chocolates.
Inga’s scientific interest in differences between male and female communication perhaps helped her to tolerate the occasions when I talked about football. In one of our last conversations, I told her how appalled I was to learn that someone had shone a green laser into Russian goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev’s face, just before Algeria’s equalizer against Russia in the Brazil World Cup (I’d seen similar behaviour in Morocco, in a game featuring one of Casablanca’s teams).[8] I also made a ‘Soviet-era’ joke, that if Akinfeev had a very traumatic time in the game against England, then perhaps Russian TV would feel obliged to show Swan Lake. Approximately, this was also when Inga put her birthday tribute for Queen Elizabeth inside another book, which I later sent from Kaliningrad.

The Shed That Fed A Million Children, which tells the story of Mary’s Meals, should one day appear in a Russian edition, thanks to the translating efforts of another of my dearest Kaliningrad friends. As regards the copy I sent to the Queen however; Inga was one of about a dozen local residents who put birthday greetings inside. Although I don’t have a photograph of those messages, I do have pictures of the card I sent at the same time (Figures 4-7). The front shows the scene in the Britannica pub where I watched Russia vs. England; another friend did the enlargement of the image of the Queen holding a pint of amber nectar, as if to toast her own birthday.
Figure 4: front of card showing the interior of Britannica pub on the Queen's official 90th birthday. The match between Russia and England finished 1-1.

Figure 5: Message inside card sent to Buckingham Palace from Kaliningrad, June 2016
Among the things inside the card, Inga tipped me off about the building rumoured to have been the residence at one time of a British government representative.
Figure 6: information about Kaliningrad inside the Queen's birthday card

Figure 7: back of the Queen's birthday card, showing Britannica pub, Kaliningrad, with Russian, British and EU flags. The card was dated and sent from Kaliningrad on the day Britain (England) voted to leave the EU
Having put the book and card into the post on 23rd June 2016 (the day of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, after which England’s footballers went to pieces), the letter dated 14 September from Balmoral Castle showed that the Queen received them (Figures 8-9). The question then is whether they might have made any difference to her meeting with Patriarch Kirill a month later. I think they did, firstly because she and her daughter Princess Anne are well aware of Mary’s Meals and its founder, Magnus MacFarlane-Barrow OBE, who wrote The Shed That Fed A Million Children.[9] More specifically however, I think the things she received from Kaliningrad made an impression because although footballing honours were shared in the game between Russia and England, it was marred by hooliganism between rival supporters. Without dwelling on who was to blame or who came off worse; the point is that an opportunity for the two countries to ‘let off steam’ turned into an excuse for yet more bad feeling. Since it took place on her official 90th birthday, the Queen at the very least would have stayed informed of the score-line; inevitably therefore, the violent disturbances must have left her with some measure of disappointment. That’s why I believe the book, with its cheerful and affectionate birthday messages, and the card, would likely have helped restore her sense that far from wishing Britain any harm, Russians are naturally inclined to be friendly towards us.

So can one infer from all this that Inga played an indispensable role in the events which led to Patriarch Kirill being given a Corgi? In my opinion it’s reasonable to think so. I only wish it was possible to ask her what she thinks.
Figure 8: card and letter sent from Balmoral Castle, Scotland, September 2016

Figure 9: text of letter sent on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II, dated 14 September 2016

[1] Brian Cronin, Sports Urban Legends Revealed, 22-06-2014
[2] ‘Azerbaijan set to unveil golden whistle from 1966 World Cup final’, Gulf Times, 30-07-2016
[3] Nick Squires, ‘The Queen Meets Pope Francis on Visit to Rome’, Daily Telegraph, 03-04-2014
[4] ‘Patriarch Kirill is given a corgi puppy’, LENTA.RU, 17-10-2016. Photo: Alexander Volkov https://lenta.ru/news/2016/10/17/korgi_patriarha/
[5] Andrew Pierce, ‘Hug for Queen Elizabeth’s first corgi’, Daily Telegraph, 01-10-2007
[6] OOO «ЖИВЁМ» Калининград, 2012. ISBN 978-5-903400-24-9
[7] Australian colloquialism, meaning light-coloured beer
[8] ‘World Cup 2014: Russia goalkeeper targeted by laser’, BBC News, 27-06-2014
[9] See MacFarlane-Barrow, ‘The Shed That Fed A Million Children’, HarperCollins, 2015, pp.237-8. In May 2017 Magnus gained first-hand knowledge of Princess Anne’s interest in the work of Mary’s Meals, when he was placed next to her at a formal banquet at Holyrood Palace in Edinburgh.

Thursday 4 August 2022

Bear-baiting: NATO’s scurvy reboot of a long-reviled blood sport

In the midst of last month’s soaring temperatures, BBC Radio 4’s early evening news programme carried a salutary reminiscence from Allan Little. He was in France during the long hot summer of 2003.

“The dazzling light bounced off the pale bleached walls of the Paris boulevards, and the air rose from sticky molten tarmac in visible thermal currents. The mercury pushed above 40 degrees Celsius every day for a week. By the end of July, A&E doctors were screaming for help. The elderly were dying, they said, while many health professionals were on annual leave. The Health Minister said it simply wasn’t true, refused to recall staff, and like everyone else, went on holiday. The old and infirm can withstand punishing temperatures during the day, if there is some relief at night, when the body can recuperate during a good night’s sleep. But in early August there were three consecutive nights when the temperature didn’t fall below 26 degrees. It was catastrophic. We saw people stretchered into crowded hospitals, packed in ice, from shoulder to thigh. Refrigerated marquees were erected to store bodies because the undertakers couldn’t cope. Many remained unclaimed for weeks because younger relatives were still on holiday. Finally the government declared a public health crisis. Too late. On the day the plan came into force, the weather broke. The temperature plummeted, and Paris breathed again. And when they did the sums, they found that more than 12,000 French citizens had been killed by the heat.”

Clearly, this doesn’t show French politicians to their best advantage; though unlike their US and British counterparts of the time, at least their hands weren’t caked in the blood of untold tens of thousands of dead and maimed Iraqi civilians. Be that as it may however, it’s useful to be reminded of Allan Little’s reporting flair. He was one of the few western correspondents who took a more than superficial interest in Moscow’s reaction to the Kosovo crisis in the spring and summer of 1999.

“The Russian role… was absolutely vital to the ending of the war. I think by the end of April the NATO allies understood the importance of getting the Russians on board. They completely disregarded Russian objections at the UN Security Council… [emphasis added]”[1]

No biggie, but NATO’s humanitarian killing spree was therefore illegal, in contravention of its own Atlantic Charter and international law. Acceptance of Kosovo independence claims in 2008 also trampled on the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, enshrining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of European states. Returning though to Little’s analysis:

“…they disregarded Russian objections at Rambouillet, but by the end of April they realised that they couldn’t do it really without the Russians. They invited the Russians back in. The Russians opened up a new diplomatic channel and a secret back channel which we talked about in our programme. The result was that the signal went unambiguously to Milosevic that he couldn’t expect Russia to come to his aid and it was because of that signal, I believe, that Milosevic ended the war.

“What was most interesting to me was the nature of the deal that was done in Moscow between Yeltsin’s people, the political leadership, and the military. I don’t know the answer to that but there was clearly a deal at the end of May. Yeltsin in some way bought off the military. They were very unhappy with what was happening in Kosovo, public opinion was extremely unhappy, it’s clear that Yeltsin felt very threatened and challenged both by the rising tide of public anger and by the strength that this gave the military, and he did something to strike a deal with the Russian military. The price that the Russian military paid was to send the signal to Milosevic that they weren’t going to come to his aid. What the military got in exchange is not clear. There is all sorts of speculation in Moscow but it is only that as far as I know.”

The nuts and bolts of Yeltsin’s relationship with his top brass, as the bombing intensified and the range of targets widened, is potentially a fascinating topic for discussion. However the purpose of this article is rather to highlight the anger generated by NATO’s unprovoked murder rampage in Russia as a whole. Polling revealed that it was opposed by 94% of the population.[2] In November last year, onetime US diplomat and GOP Senate foreign policy advisor Jim Jatras tweeted an excellent summary of the situation:

“I remember Russians telling me afterwards, “You know, we never believed all that Soviet propaganda about ‘aggressive NATO’ because we knew what liars communists are. But then you attacked Serbia and we saw that everything we thought was lies about you was all true.[3]

It’s quite likely this reflected the thinking of Boris Nikolayevich himself. Evidence that in the early days of his presidency he was little if at all exercised about NATO comes from former senior UK emissary Charles Crawford:

“In 1993 Russia’s President Yeltsin met Poland’s President Lech Wałesa in Warsaw during a visit to mark the final withdrawal of Russian forces from (formerly Warsaw Pact) Poland. Yeltsin was asked point-blank by Wałesa whether Poland could join NATO. He replied to the effect that as a free nation in a now undivided Europe, Poland could do what it liked. Yeltsin also issued a communiqué expressing ‘understanding’ for Poland’s NATO ambitions.

“Years later as UK Ambassador to Warsaw I asked Lech Wałesa about this momentous meeting and Yeltsin’s apparently affable acceptance of Poland’s NATO aspirations. Had the Russian President been, perhaps, over-infused with Polish vodka? Wałesa said no: Yeltsin had genuinely not been bothered, one way or the other.”[4]

But that was then. Kosovo represented a seismic shift. Not that there weren’t signs of disillusionment well before it hit the headlines. In a June 1997 article entitled ‘Adversaries or Allies?’, Irina Zhinkina of Moscow’s Institute for US and Canadian Studies asked:

“How is it that the new Russia, which has cast off its former ideology, remembered God, sworn loyalty to the new ideals of democracy and fallen into the embrace of its recent ‘probable adversaries’ is not accepted by western civilisation? What else must it do?”[5]

March 1999 though was the watershed moment. By throwing its weight around in the Balkans, NATO demonstrated it was precisely a law unto itself.

“NATO has proved that more or less it can do what it wants, where it wants, indeed when it wants.”[6]

This again provides necessary context for a claim made recently by Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian:

“NATO is a war machine, a military tool in furtherance of US hegemony, and a systemic threat to world peace and stability.”[7]

Yet influential figures like former US State Dept mandarin Mike McFaul affect incredulity at the idea that Putin is genuinely concerned about NATO at all. Referring to the Kremlin leader’s rhetoric in February of this year, Obama’s Moscow ambassador would have us believe there was some tremendous significance in the fact that

“In [his] 7000-word speech, the first 4628 he doesn’t mention NATO once”.[8]

As if the way a speech is structured has any bearing on the importance of a particular theme (and no matter that once Putin got on to Ukraine NATO membership, he described it as being “like a knife to Russia’s throat”). In addition, McFaul has a mantra which he repeats ad nauseam:

“NATO is not a threat to Russia!

That might have some kind of quasi legitimacy if Washington and Moscow agreed on what is and what is not Russia. Since the re-unification of Crimea in 2014 however, they don’t. In the words of distinguished IR specialist Prof John Mearsheimer:

“It’s really quite remarkable, when you listen to people in the Administration speak, and when you read editorials in the Washington Post, words like this are spoken: “This has absolutely nothing to do with NATO expansion”. I don’t know how anybody can say that. The Russians have been saying since April 2008, that this is all about NATO expansion, that NATO expansion into Ukraine is an existential threat to them.”[9]

In a helpful 2020 interview, Britain’s former ambassador to Moscow Sir Roderic Lyne (who always tended to be quite critical of the Kremlin) covered similar ground:

“And then we arrive to the 2008 Bucharest summit of NATO, which was a massive mistake on the Western side trying to push Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. It was stupid on every level at that time. If you want to start a war with Russia, that’s the best way of doing it […] The final compromise communiqué, to me, is one of the most stupid documents in modern diplomacy. The paragraph in the Bucharest communiqué about Georgia and Ukraine should be framed and put on the wall of every Western diplomat as an example of what not to do. It combines the worst of both worlds: it upsets the Georgians and the Ukrainians by not giving them a Membership Action Programme and it upsets the Russians by saying someday these guys are going to join NATO.”[10]

“But Americans simply refuse to believe that. [Mearsheimer again.] And instead what they have done, is they have created a story, that it’s not American policy, it’s not NATO expansion that’s driving this train. Instead it’s Vladimir Putin, and it’s that Vladimir Putin is either bent on recreating the Soviet Union, or he’s interested in creating a Greater Russia. But whichever one of those two outcomes you take, he is ultimately an expansionist. He is on the march. And thank God we expanded NATO, because if we hadn’t expanded NATO he’d probably be in Berlin by now, if not Paris. This is the basic argument. But of course we had to invent the story after the crisis broke out, so that we weren’t blamed for what happened. We had to blame the Russians, so we created this story.”[11]

Compounding everything over the past several years has been Ukraine’s disdainful attitude to the 2014-15 Minsk agreements; directly analogous to Britain’s contempt for the Northern Ireland Protocol in fact. Both governments were insisting the texts were unworkable before the ink had even dried. Kiev simply decided to use these agreements as an opportunity to carry out a slow-motion pogrom against the civilian population of Donetsk, with US/UK connivance.

What follows is a transcript of part of a CER (Centre for European Reform) podcast dated 13-07-2022.

Rosie Giorgi: “Charles Crawford in the UK asked:

“How far if at all do you think Russia can reasonably feel humiliated or cheated as such, by the new security and economic arrangements that emerged in Europe following the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union?””

Ian Bond: “Well, thanks very much Rosie, and thanks very much Charles. I mean, full disclosure, Charles was my boss in the British embassy in Moscow in the mid-1990s, so he and I saw many of the relevant events at that time, unrolling before our very eyes, and you could write a book about why things turned out the way they did and whose fault it was, and in fact, quite a few people have written such books. But here is my less than book-length answer, which is that the narrative of humiliation is one that Putin and those around him in the Russian leadership have chosen for themselves. It wasn’t an inevitable outcome of western actions. In fact in those early post-Cold War years, the West made enormous efforts to try to give Russia a higher status internationally than its post-Soviet condition really justified. So despite the fact that its economy was a basket case, it became a member of the G8 group of leading industrial countries. I mean, by no stretch of the imagination was 1990s Russia a leading industrial country, but it became part of that group. It was invited to join the major western powers in the so-called Contact Group, trying to bring peace to former Yugoslavia, and actually I could say it played quite a constructive role in that. And although it wasn’t invited to apply for NATO membership, it was given a special relationship with NATO through the NATO-Russia Founding Act. I mean, arguably more influence than any other third country had with NATO at the time. And it signed a partnership and cooperation agreement with the EU which gave it various trade benefits, and it joined the Council of Europe, the main European human rights organisation, even though its human rights record was still quite poor. So it got quite a lot in that early post-Cold War period. But what nobody could do, or what nobody was prepared to do, was to give Russia the kind of sphere of influence that the Soviet Union had had, in central and eastern Europe. And that’s because no western country could impose the kind of limits on the foreign policies of now-independent states in central and eastern Europe, that Russia wanted them to impose.”

The implication here is that all you had was a straight choice between the carving up of Europe at Yalta in February 1945, and the Helsinki Accords of 1975. A dumbed-down perspective surely, which doesn’t in any case take account of the coach and horses driven through Helsinki’s picturesque townscape by recognition of Kosovo independence.  

Rosie G: “And then so to ask Charles’s follow-up question: Did let’s say key western capitals get it wrong in terms of their perspectives, or drafting the arrangements, or in bringing Russia into the fold, or has Russia itself been unable to adapt, or a combination of both?”

Ian B: “Yes, so I think the West made some mistakes at the very beginning. So when the Soviet Union broke up at the end of 1991, the West could have done more to help democrats in Russia, and there were a lot of them around at that time. And in particular I would single out two areas where I think we didn’t do enough. One was in terms of helping Russia’s democrats to reduce the role of the former KGB and its officers, like Putin, because they were allowed to move from, you know, the KGB, a pretty brutal organisation, into positions of influence in Russia. That was problematic, and it became more problematic over time.”

What Ian Bond omits to mention here is that although Putin was a KGB officer, he resigned as soon as he heard about the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev. On top of that, as an associate of reforming St Petersburg mayor Anatoly Sobchak from 1990 to 1996, he had a decent claim to be one of the “democrats in Russia” deemed worthy of western help. This finds support in deeply unfashionable but nonetheless insightful remarks made by former BBC Moscow correspondent Martin Sixsmith in May 2012:

“If you take the presidential elections [of March that year] I thought there was a bit of disingenuousness about the way they were reported in Britain… When I was reading reports of the presidential election which he won with 56 percent or 60 whatever percent; the first line of every article, and even on the BBC which broadly is sort of objective about these things, was “Western election observers report that the elections were skewed towards Vladimir Putin”, and then they report that he got 65 percent of the vote. And actually the real story is that he got a majority which a western politician would give his right arm for. And even if there had been no vote-rigging – there was definitely vote-rigging, I know because I’ve spoken to people who were involved in the electoral process – even if there hadn’t been any vote-rigging, he still would have won a fantastic majority. Maybe not 65 percent – maybe 60, 59, 58 percent. And that’s the story I’m afraid. You know, the story is that he won a very big majority.”[12]

If Sixsmith is right, the Kremlins highest profile occupants had authentic democratic mandates from 1992 until at least 2018. Which isn’t to suggest the system is perfect. But Russia can be considered to be at least as democratic as South Africa, where the ANC has held power since 1994. Bond continues however…

“Secondly I think the West could have done more to help Russia establish the rule of law, rather than helping Russian oligarchs launder their money in the West. And that’s a process that began really in the 1990s, and we got that quite badly wrong. But fundamentally, we are where we are today, because of the choices that Russian leaders have made since then. Basically you get a choice over the sort of history that you tell yourself is your history. And Russia could have chosen to say, and it would have been justified in some respects to say, that its people were the heroes who had thrown off the yoke of Soviet totalitarianism after the 1991 coup, when Soviet hardliners tried to roll back the kind of democratic reforms that were coming in in the Soviet Union. So they could have said, you know, our people were the heroes who overthrew the Soviet dictatorship, and now we want to become a normal European democracy, and we recognise that we have some bridges to build with our neighbours who’ve suffered under the Soviet dictatorship for the last fifty years. And that would have been a bit like West Germany after the Second World War. But instead, particularly after Putin came into power, Russia chose, or the Russian authorities chose to blame the collapse of the USSR on the evil devious West, and then to try to reassert control over parts of the old empire as it were.

“And I guess what I would say, and I know Charles is a keen football fan, so I think he’ll recognise this; but I would say that basically, the Russian leadership under Putin has made a choice, that it is happy to be the Millwall of international relations. So Millwall are famous… Millwall supporters are famous for their chant: “Nobody [sic] likes us, we don’t care”, and that’s been Putin’s approach to the rest of the world since he came to power.”

Perhaps the author should declare an interest, as someone who taught English in the late 1990s to at least one future employee of the Russian MFA. But there’s no shortage of sound reasons to be sceptical of Ian B’s take, which isn’t even consistent with his own words. Unless he believes Putin transformed Russia into a “leading industrial nation”, its G8 membership remained an anomaly well into the twenty-first century. Yet this privileged status was at the same time almost entirely uncontroversial. There were no serious calls for Russia to be expelled until 2014, when relations came under an intolerable strain thanks to the US/EU-backed overthrow of Victor Yanukovych in Kiev.

In reality, the tale of Russia’s foreign policy in the Putin era has primarily been one of a constant search for customers for its oil and gas. And for instance there’s also this vignette from former head of the UK diplomatic service Lord McDonald of Salford:

“However difficult the political relationship, it is striking how the diplomats on the spot, the diplomats who have to work with each other every day, manage to keep their personal relationships going. And again an anecdote, from when our last ambassador to the United Nations in New York left, it was Karen Pierce, who is now our ambassador in Washington. She’d been in New York a couple of years, she left at the beginning of last year. The warmest tribute paid to Karen at the Security Council table, was from the Russian ambassador, which might surprise the audience.”[13]

It’s safe to assume Russia’s envoy didn’t suddenly remember basic principles of diplomacy forgotten since the Yeltsin era.

This was never in fact about Russian indifference to western interests. On the contrary, it’s always been about western scornfulness for what Russia sees as its core strategic interests. Joe Biden himself knows this far better than most. Two years before the bombing of Serbia, there’s footage of him giving a broad-gauge account of the damage likely to be done to US-Russian ties by NATO expansion:

“I think the one place, where the greatest consternation will be caused in the short term, for admission – having nothing to do with the merit, the preparedness of the country to come in – would be to admit the Baltic States now in terms of NATO-Russian, US-Russian relations. And if there was ever anything that was going to tip the balance were it to be tipped, in terms of a vigorous and a hostile reaction – I don’t mean military – in Russia, it would be that.”[14]

More recently, in an address last month in Langley, Virginia to mark the CIA’s 75th anniversary, Biden raised the issue of US exceptionalism.

“We’re the most unique nation in the history of the world. That’s not hyperbole.”

Professor Mearsheimer dealt with this in a podcast interview he gave in 2020.

“Our elites, and the vast majority of the American public believes that the United States is an exceptional country. This is this whole notion of American exceptionalism. And when they say that we’re an exceptional country, what they mean is that we are morally an exceptional country, we are morally good in the extreme. And if we do something wrong-headed, it’s not because we didn’t have good intentions, because of course we always have good intentions. But this story that we tell ourselves bears little resemblance to reality. The United States is one of the most ruthless great powers that’s ever walked the planet. The number of people that we’ve killed over time is truly remarkable. All you have to do is look at the firebombing of Japan in WWII. Most people focus on the dropping of two nuclear weapons in August of 1945, on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but the fact is the first night we firebombed Tokyo we killed more people than we killed in either Hiroshima or Nagasaki. And we were burning Japanese cities to the ground by the time we dropped those two nuclear weapons. Look at what we did in Germany, involving cities like Hamburg or Dresden. Look at the bombing of North Korea during the Korean war! Most people know hardly anything about this. There are some estimates that we killed twenty percent of the North Korean population. We bombed like crazy in Vietnam. We have a rich history of overthrowing governments. And just go back to how the US was created. It’s a story of conquest on a large scale. We murdered huge numbers of native Americans, stole their land. What's now the South-West of the US we stole from Mexico. I mean if you really look carefully at American history over time and the various wars we fought, it’s not a pretty picture! But this is not what Americans believe and it’s not what our elites believe.”[15]

Towards the end of his speech in Langley, Biden said:

“I know that you will continue to honor and uphold the highest traditions of the CIA and the highest values of this nation for the next 75 years and beyond.”

The CIA “upholds the highest values of the nation”. It’s just staggering that the POTUS can say this with a straight face. It would be no more ridiculous if he said the same about Hunter Biden.



[1] Allan Little’s Kosovo Forum, bbc.co.uk 15-03-2000

[2] Cited in ‘Oh What a Lovely War!’, Economist, 24-04-1999

[3] 29-11-2021

[4] ‘European Insecurity’, Charles Crawford, Diplomat Magazine August 2022

[5] «Противники или союзники? (партнерство США и России, НАТО)» (‘Adversaries or Allies? US-Russia partnership, NATO’), НВО (Независимое военное обозрение – Independent Military Review) 21 (48) 14-06-97. Cited in Stanley Kober, ‘Russia’s Search for Identity’; Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Corny, eds. NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality. Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1998.

[6] Sky News correspondent Tim Marshall reporting from Belgrade, April 1999

[7] ‘Chinese spokesperson slams NATO for strategic concept referring to China’, China Daily, 29-07-2022

[8] Munk Debate: Russia-Ukraine War | Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer v Michael McFaul, Radosław Sikorski, 12-05-2022

[9] Committee for the Republic, ‘Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Salon’| Ray McGovern, John Mearsheimer, 02-03-2022

[10] University Consortium Interview Series: Sir Roderic Lyne. Interview by Nikita Gryazin, December 2020

[11] Committee for the Republic, op cit. 

[12] Former BBC Moscow correspondent Martin Sixsmith discussing Russia’s 2012 presidential elections, Watershed Bristol, 20 May 2012. He shared a stage with Guardian journalist Luke Harding, who got himself expelled from Russia in 2011. According to prevailing orthodoxy, this is something he should be proud of. In reality, his obnoxious antics simply made the world a slightly more dangerous place.

[13] Zoom lecture hosted by Keele University, “Statecraft and Diplomacy: Coping with the 21st Century”, 04-11-2021. The tribute paid to Karen Pierce in New York on 12-03-2020 was as follows: Mr. Safronkov (in Russian): “I too would like to express our sincere wishes for the success and future professional achievements of Ambassador Pierce. She has done a great deal personally and as a diplomat to ensure the productive work of the Security Council. We will certainly miss her.”

[14] Address to the Atlantic Council, Washington, 18-06-1997

[15] ‘Manifold’ podcast interview with John Mearsheimer, conducted in 2020 with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Exact date unspecified.

Tuesday 2 August 2022

Winning Run of the Rovers

What is the chemical formula of the gas, nitric oxide, understood to help brain cells transmit messages to each other? And is this related to the term ‘gashead’, applied to Bristol Rovers fans? The answer to both questions is NO. Followers of Bristol’s more cerebral football team acquired their nickname in the 1960s because Eastville Stadium was in shouting distance of a gas works.

Eastville’s proximity to Stottbury Road, Horfield, also explained the Blue and Whites’ strong claim on the loyalties of St Thomas More’s RC Secondary School pupils. St Tom’s fifty-year life span, until its closure in 2005, corresponded more or less to that of St Thomas Becket Catholic High School in Huyton, Merseyside. Although St Tom B’s intake was never quite so captivated by the blue side of Liverpool, gifted student Joey Barton dreamed of playing for Everton.

Mind you, Joseph Anthony Barton had a tough childhood. As a result, his career has been punctuated by numerous contretemps and bust-ups, and he’s served time in prison. One might say this-or-that individual was dealt a similar or worse hand in life, yet was never such a turbulent character. Maybe so; but if others – including some of those who judge Barton – had had to contend with the disadvantages he faced, they might have gone off the rails even more than he did.

So let’s not go there. Barton was a tenacious and hardworking midfielder. One of his finest moments came in the second half of a UEFA Europa League match between Olympique Marseille and Borussia Mönchengladbach in November 2012. He scored directly from a corner to equalise for the Olympians, whose fans voted him their best player of the following month. Only Paris Saint-Germain prevented Élie Baup’s side from capturing the 2012-13 Ligue 1 title.

From its HQ in Dalmally, Argyll, Mary’s Meals provides nutritious meals every school day to 2,279,941 of the world’s poorest children. The story of the charity’s rapid expansion, and its origins in an aid agency called Scottish International Relief (SIR), is told in a bestselling book by founder Magnus MacFarlane-Barrow, The Shed That Fed Two Million Children. Among many prominent celebrities who’ve lent support, Real Madrid playmaker Luka Modrić used his profile to promote an outstanding film called Child 31 (now available on YouTube). As a refugee with his family in the Croatian city of Zadar in the mid-1990s, the future Ballon d’Or winner was a beneficiary of humanitarian aid from SIR.

I had this in mind last December when I decided to send Joey Barton a bright blue and white Mary’s Meals Christmas card, adorned with a snowbound image of Dalmally’s famous shed. Inside, underneath the festive greeting I wrote a message which went something like:

“A few months after you were born, on 20 November 1982 I attended my first ever football match; an FA Cup tie between Chester City and Northwich Victoria at Sealand Road. It finished 1-1 and Northwich won the replay. They went on to reach the FA Trophy final at Wembley, as I’m sure you know.”

Joey Barton’s Dad, another Joseph, played semi-professionally for Northwich Vics and is likely to have featured in the Chester game.

“Come on you Blues!”

On New Year’s Day Bristol Rovers languished in 18th place, just a handful of points above the relegation zone. January however turned out to be an excellent month, in which they recorded three wins and a draw. While a lot of the credit for the transformation in the Pirates’ fortunes is laid at the door of loan-signing Elliot Anderson, he didn’t make his debut until February. Besides, it was no doubt important that Rovers were on a bit of a roll when the Geordie starlet was enticed to tear himself away from St James’s Park.

Saturday 7th May, the climax of the 2021-22 season, will always have a special place in Rovers folklore. In order to pip Northampton Town to the last automatic promotion place, Barton’s protégés knew they were likely to need a cricket score against Scunthorpe. At the interval they were only 2-0 up, but moved to 6-0 on 79 minutes. In the 85th, Anderson headed home goal number seven. The scenes which followed can only be described as pandemonium.

We may never know if Barton’s Mary’s Meals Christmas card made a difference, but stranger things have happened. Leicester’s rise from the bottom to the top of the Premiership in 2015-16 had nothing to do with the arrival of a new manager or any particular player. Incontrovertibly, the timing of the Foxes’ turnaround coincided precisely with the boost to civic pride generated by the re-interment of Richard III in Leicester Cathedral. When LCFC were crowned champions, fans waving banners of England’s last Yorkist king knew what they were doing. York City, whose burgesses had tried but failed to have Richard’s relics translated to their own famous Minster, were banished to the Conference a few days before.

With last season’s stunning finale still fresh in the memory, Joey Barton has now been sent a DVD of Child 31. Maybe it’ll inspire him to take his charges to the Championship, or a Wembley final. One thing every intelligent Rovers fan knows, is that it’s high time we were back on level terms with our south Bristol rivals who shall remain nameless.

Sunday 10 July 2022

Them’s the Brex

On Thursday 07 July, BBC Radio 4’s flagship Today programme was specially extended as the surge of government resignations went into full spate and everyone realised Johnson was headed for No.10’s famous door. A few minutes before official confirmation came through, presenter Nick Robinson cross-questioned Attorney General Suella Braverman. Tackling the subject of the PM’s integrity, Robinson made clear that he has “always known” the cocaine-snorting louse was a pathological liar:

Nick Robinson: “You say your duty is to the country. Wasn’t your duty to the country to call out Boris Johnson’s behaviour, months, years ago? There’s nothing that’s happened in the last two days that you didn’t know about Boris Johnson. His willingness to repeatedly say things that were not true, or tell other people to say things that were not true; his willingness to sanction behaviour that was regarded as unacceptable; his willingness to promote people who behaved badly, simply because they were loyal to him. There’s nothing that you know now that you’ve not always known.”

So the question is, why has Johnson always automatically been taken at his word when the alternative was to believe anything favourable to Russia? Assuming one’s mind isn’t shrouded in the primordial fog of racial prejudice; shouldn’t the known fact that he’s a prancing fib-machine have some bearing on the credibility of his statements about, say, the curious events in Salisbury in 2018? Or the Kremlin's alleged poisoning of, <checks notes>, Alexei Navalny’s underpants? Or for that matter the use of chemical weapons in Syria? Or the overthrow of Ukraine's elected government in 2014? Or the downing of Malaysian airliner MH17? Or the deliberate spoiling for a fight which drew Russia into a large-scale military intervention?